The outlook for M&A in Canada is uncertain, with tariff wars weighing on investor decisions. At the time of writing in early 2025, the authors believed that a number of factors supported an optimistic climate for deal-making. However, the trade war launched by the United States against Canada in February 2025 and the wide-ranging retaliatory tariffs imposed by the United States on 2 April 2025 resulted in a global stock market crash. There is now a significant risk of both a global recession and higher inflation. These dramatic changes and the resulting uncertainty will impact the level of M&A activity in Canada.
Easing interest rates, decreasing inflation and a steady exchange rate against the US dollar throughout 2024 spurred just enough confidence for Canadian deal-making to carry on at higher deal values than 2023.
After the “soft landing” in 2024, investors were briefly hopeful for an uptick in Canadian M&A in 2025 given the stimulating effects of the lower cost of borrowing on housing activity, household spending and construction. Moreover, the financing market is robust, with an abundance of creative financing options; private equity firms continue to hold an abundance of cash ready to deploy; valuation gaps have narrowed as acquirors spend longer in due diligence; and the declining value of the Canadian dollar makes Canadian businesses more attractive for US bargain hunters.
However, since the US tariff war with Canada began in February 2025, business confidence has taken a significant hit, and the valuations of Canadian businesses will be impacted by the risk of a global recession, particularly those businesses that trade with the United States. With a majority of Canadian exports going to the USA, Canadians are uneasy watching the tariff story develop.
Though the news and outlook change day to day, it appears that businesses will be taking a “wait-and-see”, guarded approach to M&A in early 2025 and deferring transactions until confidence has recovered.
M&A activity in Canada was set to improve in 2025 as interest rates fell throughout 2024 and investor confidence improved. However, risks of a global recession and the expectation of increased inflation from the tariff war have created uncertainty for businesses and deal making going forward.
Key trends that are affecting M&A activity in Canada include the following:
Automotive, Steel and Aluminium
Currently the industries that are hardest hit by the US tariff war are the automotive industry and the steel and aluminium industries.
The automotive industry in Canada over the past 30 years became inextricably linked with the United States. Automotive parts manufactured in Canada would cross the border up to eight times before final assembly. The tariffs imposed by the United States this year, and the countermeasures imposed by Canada, are expected to permanently break this arrangement. Canada will be developing a framework for auto producers that incentivises production and investment in Canada.
Similarly, the steel and aluminium industries have been singled out for tariffs and reciprocal tariffs. In 2024, roughly equivalent amounts of steel and iron crossed the border in each direction while more than three times the amount of aluminium flows from Canada to the USA.
These industries and the industries that support them will be suffering significant losses of revenue and employment.
Mining
Approximately half of all publicly traded mining companies in the world are listed on a Canadian stock exchange. In 2024, the mining and metals sector led materials M&A activity by sheer number of transactions and fell only behind the telecommunications sector in deal value. Notable deals included South Africa’s Gold Fields’ USD1.39 billion acquisition of Osisko Mining, and First Majestic’s USD970 million acquisition of Gatos Silver.
Canadian mining companies continue to face unique challenges such as increased government scrutiny on foreign investment, geopolitical risks, and environmental hurdles.
Canada is a key producer of copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, graphite and vanadium. As global demand increases for critical minerals used in batteries and other clean technology, Canada continues to look for ways to invest in, and protect, these key resources.
A notable headline in the sector includes Noble Mineral Exploration and Canada Nickel’s announcement of the plan to consolidate their interests.
Oil and Gas
The oil and gas sector accounts for approximately 3% of Canada’s real gross domestic product. Canada is the world’s fourth-largest producer of oil and fifth-largest producer of natural gas and Canadian refineries can process nearly 1.9 million barrels of crude oil per day.
Oil industry M&A remained active in 2024, with notable transactions such as: Canadian Natural Resources’ acquisition of Chevron's Alberta assets for USD6.5 billion, Enbridge’s CAN4.3 billion acquisition of Fall West Holdco from Dominion Energy and Teck’s sale of its steel-making coal business to Glencore for USD7.3 billion.
M&A in the oil and gas sector appears promising. A major deal already underway is the USD2.05 billion acquisition of Dutch green fuel-maker, OCI Global by Canada’s Methanex, the largest methanol producer in the world.
Technology
Canada has a solid presence within the technology sector. It is home to leading technology hubs and companies, such as Shopify, as well as to market leaders in numerous sectors, including cleantech.
As of May 2024, 88% of the cleantech sector companies listed on the TSX and TSX-Venture exchanges were headquartered in Canada.
Technology companies have lost a lot of value from the stock market highs of 2021, and more going-private transactions are expected. For example, Montreal-based Nuvei Corp. was taken private by a US private equity firm for USD6.3 billion, and Industrial and Financial Systems acquired Copperleaf Technologies for CAD1 billion.
The technology sector has been active: Canada Pension Plan Investments participated in the largest data centre deal globally – the acquisition of Airtrunk by Blackstone, and Singapore’s Bitdeer Technologies Group announced in February 2025 its acquisition of a 101 MW site in Alberta for USD21.7 million where it will build a data centre for Bitcoin mining.
Most public company acquisitions in Canada are conducted by way of:
Companies can also be acquired by way of:
M&A activity in Canada is primarily regulated by:
Reporting issuers, including all issuers with securities listed on a Canadian stock exchange, must file continuous disclosure documents on SEDAR+, a web-based platform for electronic filing and public data access for Canada’s capital markets. Reporting insiders – including directors, officers and 10% beneficial owners of a class of securities of a reporting issuer – must file trade reports on the System for Electronic Disclosure by Insiders (SEDI) unless an exemption is available.
There is no single national securities regulator in Canada and multiple attempts at creating one have failed. At present, there are 13 securities regulators in Canada, across its ten provinces and three territories.
Investment Canada Act (ICA) and National Security Review
Canada has traditionally welcomed foreign investment and has a reputation as an attractive and trusted destination for investors. However, like most countries, the Canadian government may restrict the ability of a non-Canadian to acquire or start a business in Canada, in particular if the investment relates to a cultural business (for example, broadcasting and publishing) or raises national security concerns. The government may block proposed foreign investments, allow them to proceed with conditions, or order divestiture if an investment has already been made.
A transaction by a non-Canadian is reviewable if the enterprise value of the target business exceeds certain financial thresholds (for WTO investors that are not state-owned enterprises, the threshold is an enterprise value of CAD1.386 billion). If a transaction is reviewable, the foreign investor must prove that the transaction is of “net benefit” to Canada. If not reviewable, a notification under the ICA must be filed within 30 days after commencing a new business activity or acquiring control of an existing Canadian business.
Separately, the Canadian government may review any acquisition on national security grounds under the ICA, whether or not it is subject to a net benefit review. There is no definition of “national security” in the ICA, nor are there specific monetary thresholds that automatically trigger a national security review. Any foreign investments in businesses involved in the Canadian oil sands, the critical minerals sector, defence, and certain other protected industries are likely to be subject to greater scrutiny. In particular, the government has stated that any investment (regardless of size or industry) into a Canadian business from an investor with direct or indirect ties to Russia, and any investment by a foreign state-owned enterprise into Canada’s critical minerals sector, will trigger a national security analysis. The government is also more likely to take a closer look at opportunistic acquisitions of targets hit hard by tariffs.
Following amendments to the ICA in 2022, investors may make a voluntary pre-closing filing regarding a proposed minority investment to determine if it would be subject to a national security review, triggering a 45-day review period for the government. If no voluntary notification is filed, the government has up to five years to make an order for a national security review after becoming aware of the investment. The national security review provisions can apply to acquisitions even where there is a limited connection to Canada.
Further amendments to the ICA were introduced in 2024, including permitting the Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry to impose interim conditions on investors or other relevant parties during the course of a national security review. Such conditions include restricting the investor from appointing board members or senior management, restricting physical access to sites, and suspending the investors’ contracts.
Sanctions
Canada has sanctioned countries, individuals and entities that it considers to be connected to human rights violations, corruption, or terrorist activities. Canada currently has sanctions in place against 24 countries and has enacted measures to freeze or restrain the property of certain politically exposed foreign persons. Sanctions can require, among other things, restrictions on trade, and disclosure and/or divestiture of assets in sanctioned jurisdictions.
Industries with Limits on Foreign Ownership
Ownership by non-Canadians is restricted in certain sectors, including the airline, banking, telecommunications and insurance industries. In 2022, the federal government imposed a temporary ban (with some exceptions) on foreign ownership of Canadian non-recreational residential property, which was recently extended until 1 January 2027.
In March 2024, the government of Canada issued a policy statement setting out that foreign investments in the interactive digital media sector will be subject to enhanced scrutiny under the national security review framework. In February 2025, the government of Canada released a Sensitive Technology List, setting out technologies which will be protected from “unwanted transfer to foreign threat actors to the detriment of its own national security and defence.”
In March 2025, the ICA Guidelines were amended to include as a decision-making factor the potential of an investment to undermine Canada’s economic security through the enhanced integration of the Canadian business within the economy of a foreign state.
Competition Act
Foreign investment is also subject to pre-merger notification under the Competition Act if it meets both of the following thresholds:
The Competition Bureau reserves the right to review any transaction. Under the Competition Act, the Competition Bureau has up to three years post-closing for transactions that are not notifiable, and one year for notifiable transactions to determine whether it is likely to lessen or prevent competition substantially. In addition, all business activity in Canada is subject to scrutiny for anti-competitive behaviour.
Significant amendments to the Canadian Competition Act have been made in recent years. Among other things, these amendments expanded the non-exhaustive list of acts that may be considered an abuse of dominant position and increased the applicable penalties. The amendments also removed the efficiency defence for anti-competitive collaborations and in merger reviews.
In 2024, the Competition Bureau took legal action against Google for engaging in anti-competitive practices following an investigation that found that Google abused its dominant position by preventing rivals from being able to compete.
Canada continues to amend its Competition Act to target unsupported ESG claims by including harsher penalties, and will soon allow private parties to seek leave for proceedings (whereas currently this right is limited only to the Competition Bureau).
Employment legislation varies by jurisdiction in Canada. Minimum statutory employment standards, such as notice requirements on termination, generally cannot be contracted out of or waived. For example, an employment agreement providing for “termination at will” would not be enforceable.
Other legislation applies to the employment relationship, including the applicable human rights code, pay equity statute and occupational health and safety legislation.
Canada supports the principles of collective bargaining. Each jurisdiction in Canada has a labour code.
Ontario prohibits non-competition provisions in employment agreements and requires certain employers to have a written policy with respect to “disconnecting from work”. In 2024, Ontario and British Columbia adopted standards for minimum working conditions for digital platform workers such as app-based ride-hailing and delivery drivers.
Acquirors should conduct due diligence to understand the potential severance costs associated with a target’s key employees and consider whether any future plans (for example, a return-to-office policy) could be construed as constructive dismissal requiring severance payments.
In the context of M&A transactions, while there is no requirement to engage with employees or pension trustees, target company directors in discharging their fiduciary duties are encouraged to take the interests of these stakeholders into account. If a target business is unionised or about to become unionised, a potential acquiror should also learn more about the current collective bargaining agreement and any negotiation process that is underway.
See 2.3 Restrictions on Foreign Investments.
Poonian v British Columbia (Securities Commission)
Filing for bankruptcy will not discharge all penalties relating to fraudulent securities conduct. The Supreme Court of Canada ruled that administrative penalties may be dischargeable through bankruptcy; however, disgorgement orders, which are designed to return ill-gotten gains to victims, are not dischargeable.
Riot Platforms v Bitfarms
Riot, the largest shareholder in Bitfarms, sought a cease trade order for Bitfarms’ shareholder rights plan. The plan contained a 15% trigger threshold, which Riot argued undermined the takeover bid regime (which has a 20% trigger threshold). The Capital Markets Tribunal granted the cease trade order and found that a shareholder rights plan could be cease-traded if it substantially undermines securities law principles. The Tribunal stated that “exceptional circumstances” would be required to justify a trigger below the 20% threshold of the takeover bid regime.
Re Cormark Securities
The Ontario Capital Markets Tribunal held that a “distribution” is the first sale of securities in the market and that pledging restricted shares as collateral for a share loan and selling the borrowed shares on the secondary market does not qualify as a “distribution”.
Mithaq Canada (Re)
Following an attempted hostile takeover bid, the Ontario Capital Markets Tribunal held that while a private placement was a defensive response, it was permissible, due to the target’s need for financing. This case signals a more flexible stance on defensive tactics in Canada (even if they restrict shareholder choice during hostile takeovers) and indicates that defensive placements may make future takeover attempts more challenging.
Achter Land & Cattle v South West Terminal
The Saskatchewan Court of Appeal reinforced that although it is a highly fact-specific analysis, a thumbs-up emoji can constitute acceptance of a contract.
Dr. C. Sims Dentistry v Cooke
Following the sale of his practice, the seller went on to work at a competing practice, contrary to the non-competition clause. The Ontario Court of Appeal upheld the restrictive covenant and confirmed such provisions are intended to protect the goodwill of the acquired business and, therefore, are deemed lawful unless shown to be unreasonable. Alternatively, in an employment context, courts will often find the same covenant overbroad and unenforceable.
Dente v Delta Plus
An Ontario court held that post-closing communications between counsel and the sellers of a target corporation may be subject to joint privilege whereas during negotiations, such communications and documentation are privileged.
Lochan v Binance Holdings
The Court of Appeal of Ontario emphasised that standard-form “click” contracts that require users to accept numerous terms, including burdensome arbitration clauses, can render such clauses invalid on the grounds of public policy or unconscionability. Businesses should carefully consider the structure of their arbitration clauses, particularly with respect to forums and cost.
Takeover Bid Amendments
The last significant amendments to the takeover bid rules in Canada were implemented in 2016. These amendments included:
Securities regulators are inclined to strictly enforce these rules in order to promote predictability in the takeover bid regime. Exemptions and variations are rare.
It is common in Canada for prospective acquirors to accumulate shares of their target prior to launching a takeover bid or change of control transaction. An acquiror may establish a “toehold” through open market purchases or private transactions with other shareholders.
Acquirors may also seek support from other shareholders through accumulation of proxies or lock-up or voting agreements in support of a transaction.
An acquiror must publicly disclose its ownership of a reporting issuer once it directly or indirectly beneficially owns, or has control or direction over, 10% or more of a class of securities (whereas in the USA, the threshold is 5%). This threshold is reduced to 5% in Canada if a takeover bid for the relevant securities is outstanding.
Beneficial ownership of securities is calculated on a partially diluted basis by class and includes:
Control or direction generally is established by the ability to vote, or direct the voting of, shares or the ability to acquire or dispose of, or direct the acquisition or disposition of, shares.
Equity equivalent derivatives, such as equity swaps, generally are not included in determining whether the 10% ownership threshold has been crossed, although interests in these and other related financial instruments must be disclosed in reporting required once the 10% ownership threshold has been crossed.
The determination of whether parties are joint actors hinges on establishing the existence of a plan of action or a mutual understanding about how shareholders will vote their shares. Having a common goal or concern is insufficient to establish that the parties are acting jointly or in concert.
Early Warning Disclosure
Upon crossing the 10% ownership threshold, the acquiror is subject to the early warning regime and must file a press release and an early warning report (similar to a Schedule 13D in the USA). After the 10% threshold is met, an early warning report is required for the acquisition of or disposal of additional shares that results in a 2% or more change in total share ownership.
Eligible institutional investors, which include passive financial institutions, pension funds, mutual funds, investment managers and SEC-registered investment advisers, may file a less onerous alternative monthly report (similar to a Schedule 13G in the USA). Access to the alternative monthly report regime is contingent on, among other things, the institutional investor having no current intention of acquiring control of the reporting issuer.
Insider Reporting
Directors, officers, 10% beneficial owners and other “reporting insiders” of reporting issuers must file insider reports disclosing any change to their beneficial ownership of, or control or direction over, the reporting issuer’s securities or interest in a related financial instrument.
Unlike in the USA, structural defences to stakebuilding in constating documents or by-laws are not common in Canada because they are not required or would be ineffective under Canadian law.
Early Warning Standstill
An acquiror that is obligated to file an early warning report may not acquire any more securities of that class (or securities convertible into such securities) until the expiry of one business day after the early warning report is filed.
Takeover Bid Rules
Once an acquiror has beneficial ownership of, or control or direction over, 20% or more of the outstanding voting or equity securities of a class, any further acquisitions of outstanding securities of that class would constitute a takeover bid that requires an offer to be made to all security holders unless an exemption is available.
Rights Plans
Before the 2016 takeover bid regime amendments, the primary structural defence mechanism for an issuer in Canada was a shareholder rights plan (commonly known as a “poison pill”). Rights plans are still in use, albeit with some differences to pre-2016 plans. Typical features of a rights plan include the following:
The primary value of a tactical rights plan adopted following the emergence of a bid traditionally has been to buy time for a board and shareholders to consider an offer and (where appropriate) seek alternatives to the bid.
As takeover bid offers must remain open for at least 105 days, it is generally expected that regulators will cease-trade a rights plan after that timeframe. Even where a regulator permits a rights plan to remain in place, certain Canadian stock exchanges may refuse a plan if it does not receive shareholder approval within six months of being implemented, which often functions as a de facto termination date for tactical rights plans.
Other Hurdles to Stakebuilding
Acquisitions of shares generally cannot be made if a person is in a special relationship with an issuer and possesses inside information (information that has not been generally disclosed and could reasonably be expected to significantly affect the market price or value of a security of the issuer).
Most private companies have restrictions on share transfers in their articles or in unanimous shareholder agreements that would prevent a third party from acquiring shares without board or shareholder approval.
For reporting issuers with a public float, it would not be possible to restrict share transfers in the articles or by-laws, but individual shareholders may agree to a standstill as part of a negotiated transaction.
Dealings in derivatives are permitted in Canada.
Disclosure by 10% holders must be made of the material terms of any “related financial instrument” involving the issuer’s securities as well as any other “agreement, arrangement or understanding that has the effect of altering, directly or indirectly”, the investor’s economic exposure to the issuer’s securities. Disclosure is also required of any securities lending arrangements.
See 2.4 Antitrust Regulations for filing requirements under competition laws.
Early warning reports and alternative monthly reports require disclosure of any plans or intentions that investors and joint actors may have relating to any changes in their security ownership, voting intentions or any material transaction they may propose.
An eligible institutional investor will be disqualified from filing alternative monthly reports if the investor intends to propose a transaction that would result in it acquiring effective control.
Reporting issuers must immediately disclose all “material changes”. In the context of a proposed transaction, the threshold for a material change requiring disclosure is typically met when both parties have decided to proceed with a potential transaction and there is a substantial likelihood that the transaction will be completed. There is no bright-line test for this determination.
Certain Canadian stock exchanges require disclosure of all “material information”, which includes both material changes and material facts. Confidential material change filings and trading halts may be made in certain circumstances.
The acquisition by a reporting issuer of a private company will require disclosure only if the transaction is a material change for the reporting issuer. A transaction between two private companies carries no public disclosure obligation.
Most acquisitions are announced publicly only once definitive acquisition agreements are signed. Companies tend to avoid disclosing a potential transaction at the non-binding letter of intent stage because the transaction may be tentative or uncertain and premature disclosure could unduly affect the share price or give potential competitors or stakeholders time to mobilise in opposition prior to the issuer having any deal certainty. If the transaction is announced prematurely, the target could suffer reputational harm or face questions from regulators.
Significant business combinations usually involve a thorough scope of due diligence including searches of public bankruptcy, lien and litigation registries, obtaining a corporate profile, and a review of public filings on SEDAR+, SEDI and other databases.
Searches are typically run against the target company and its management and material subsidiaries; for privately held companies, they are also run against the selling shareholders.
Diligence documents, such as financial statements and material contracts, will typically be supplied by the target to the buyer and its counsel via an electronic dataroom.
Common factors affecting the scope of due diligence include the nature of the target’s industry, the jurisdiction where assets are located, whether the target competes with the buyer, and the access to sensitive information the target is willing to grant.
Most letters of intent and acquisition agreements include exclusivity obligations on the target. Acquirors will usually want to know that the target has ceased all negotiations and is not shopping their deal to third parties.
Most targets will want a standstill arrangement in place with the acquiror.
For the acquisition of a reporting issuer, it is common for exclusivity obligations to contain a “fiduciary out” clause allowing the target to terminate the agreement and accept a superior proposal if doing so would be consistent with the target board’s fiduciary duties. The acquiror would typically have a right to match the superior proposal or would be entitled to be paid a break fee (as described in 6.7 Types of Deal Security Measures) if the agreement is terminated.
A “superior proposal” will typically need to satisfy specific negotiated conditions, including that:
The existence of “hard” lock-up agreements (ie, the shareholder is not permitted to withdraw and tender its shares to, or vote in favour of, any other competing transaction) with target shareholders holding a significant percentage of shares could render an offer incapable of being a “superior proposal” because it is not reasonably capable of being completed.
The documentation used to set out the terms of a deal is determined by the nature of a transaction.
If the transaction is a takeover bid, the acquiror must publicly file a takeover bid circular that describes the terms of its offer and includes other required disclosure. If the terms of the takeover bid subsequently change, further notices must be filed. For friendly takeover bids, the acquiror would typically enter into a support agreement with the target prior to launching the bid setting out the process of the bid, conditions and certain deal protections.
If the transaction is a plan of arrangement or other negotiated business combination, the acquiror and the target would enter into an arrangement or combination agreement. The agreement would set out the process of the transaction (including shareholder, court and other approvals), conditions and certain deal protections.
Parties typically enter into a non-binding letter of intent setting out the proposed deal terms with binding provisions regarding exclusivity, expenses and confidentiality.
Parties then conduct due diligence and negotiate a definitive acquisition agreement. The time required varies depending on the size and nature of the target and the involvement of third parties, such as lenders.
The timeline for a friendly takeover bid generally is 50–65 days beginning from the start of preparation of the takeover bid circular to the completion of the transaction, assuming the target waives the minimum bid period of 105 days (shortening it to no less than 35 days).
A hostile takeover bid must remain open for at least 105 days. The bid period may be shortened by the target or reduced to no less than 35 days if the target announces an alternative transaction, such as a plan of arrangement, requiring approval by the target’s shareholders. A mandatory ten-day extension period will apply if the bidder satisfies the minimum tender condition and is required to take up securities that were tendered under the bid. Defensive tactics used by the target may vary the timeline to complete the bid.
Typically, following a successful takeover bid, the acquiror will conduct a second-step transaction to obtain 100% of the outstanding shares.
If the target is a private company, the parties may sign the definitive documents and close the transaction on the same day. Otherwise, closing may take 30–60 days or longer depending on the extent to which shareholder, court or regulatory approvals are required.
Complex transactions often will have outside dates that may be extended to accommodate regulatory approvals.
An acquisition of outstanding voting or equity securities of a reporting issuer that would cause a shareholder to, together with any joint actors, have beneficial ownership of and/or control over 20% or more of the outstanding securities (calculated on a partially diluted basis) is prohibited unless:
Such exemptions include:
Both cash and shares of the acquiror are commonly used in Canada as consideration in M&A transactions.
The takeover bid rules require that identical consideration be provided to all target shareholders, with limited exceptions. Generally, no collateral benefits are allowed to be offered selectively to certain shareholders.
Plans of arrangement offer flexibility on consideration, so long as the arrangement overall is fair and reasonable.
In private M&A, particularly in industries with high valuation uncertainty, tools commonly used to bridge value gaps between parties include holdbacks and earn-outs.
Sellers may also provide some or all of the financing, or reinvest proceeds in the purchaser, to facilitate the closing.
Common conditions for takeover bids include:
Takeover bids cannot be subject to a financing condition as discussed in 6.6 Requirement to Obtain Financing.
All bids, even partial bids, must provide for a mandatory minimum tender condition that more than 50% of securities owned by security holders other than the bidder be tendered to the bid. This minimum tender requirement must be met before the bidder may acquire any of the securities subject to the bid.
Bids for all of the outstanding shares may include a higher minimum tender condition to ensure that the bidder, through a second-step business combination, can obtain the remaining shares that are not deposited. This condition will usually require a deposit of at least 66⅔% of the outstanding shares and sufficient shares to obtain approval of a majority of the minority shareholders for the second-step transaction. Canadian securities regulations allow securities that were obtained under a lock-up to be voted as part of the majority of the minority vote if the locked-up security holder is treated identically to all others under the offer.
If a bidder is only seeking control, it may include a minimum tender requirement of, for example, 51% of the outstanding shares instead. Parties may apply to Canadian securities regulators to waive or vary the minimum tender condition, although regulators will only allow such a waiver in rare cases.
In an arrangement, amalgamation and other business combinations, there is no regulatory requirement or restriction on financing conditions. However, the target will generally require that the acquiror show evidence that it will be able to fund the cash consideration.
For takeover bids that offer cash consideration, the bidder must have pre-arranged financing before launching the bid. The financing itself may be conditional at the time the bid is commenced, if the bidder reasonably believes that the possibility is remote that it will not be able to pay for securities deposited under the bid.
Acquirors may seek a wide variety of deal protection measures, examples of which are described below.
Support Agreements and Lock-Ups
In a friendly takeover, before launching the bid, the bidder and the target may enter into a support agreement whereby the target agrees to recommend that its shareholders tender to the bid and the bidder agrees to launch the bid on terms specified in the support agreement, subject to conditions such as a fiduciary out.
The directors, officers or significant shareholders of a target may also enter into lock-up or voting agreements with the acquiror to deposit their shares to the bid or vote their shares in favour of an arrangement. These agreements may be “hard” or “soft” (see 6.11 Irrevocable Commitments).
Stock exchange rules may require that disinterested securityholders approve of voting agreements requiring shareholders to vote their shares in accordance with management recommendations. Negative voting agreements (those requiring a shareholder to not vote against management’s recommendations), on the other hand, are not required to be approved by disinterested securityholders.
Break/Termination Fees
A common deal protection measure in Canada is a break fee which may be paid by the target to the acquiror if an arrangement or other business combination is not completed. These types of fees usually range from 2% to 4% of the target’s equity value.
Reverse break fees requiring a payment by the acquiror to the target if the acquiror breaches the acquisition agreement or is not able to complete the sale may also be used.
No-Shop/Go-Shop Clauses
No-shop clauses prohibit a target from soliciting other takeover offers or providing information to other third parties that might be used to make an offer. These provisions will typically include a “fiduciary out” (see 5.4 Standstills or Exclusivity).
Go-shop clauses, on the other hand, allow a target to negotiate or “shop” a transaction with third parties for a specific amount of time after the execution of the agreement. Go-shops are less common but may be desirable if the acquiror wants to publicly announce the deal before the target tests the market.
Matching Rights
The acquiror may be provided the right to match a superior proposal and complete the transaction.
Managing Risk During the Interim Period
Once a definitive acquisition agreement is signed or a takeover bid launched, the acquiror is bound to complete the transaction unless one of the expressly stated conditions is not satisfied.
Definitive acquisition agreements now contain specific pandemic or epidemic provisions, including representations about the impact of public health measures on the business and the extent to which government support has been relied on. Material adverse effect and ordinary course of business provisions have garnered greater attention in recent years, in part due to COVID-19 pandemic’s impact and current global trade uncertainty.
If an acquiror is not seeking 100% ownership of a target, it may negotiate for additional governance rights with respect to a target outside its shareholdings, including the right to:
Shareholders are permitted to vote by proxy in Canada.
If an acquiror wishes to obtain 100% of the shares of a target and is not able to do so through the bid process, there are two other methods that can be used to acquire the remaining shares depending on the holdings of the acquiror after the bid is complete.
Second-Step Business Combination/Going-Private Transaction
A second-step business combination or a going-private transaction can be implemented if the bidder holds between 66⅔% and 90% of the outstanding shares after the bid is complete. Following the bid, the bidder will be able to take the company private through an amalgamation or a plan of arrangement.
Such a business combination will need to be approved by a special majority of the shareholders at a shareholder meeting and will be subject to certain minority shareholder protections. (For instance, a majority of the minority of the shareholders will be required to approve of the business combination.) However, as the majority shareholder, the bidder can participate and vote the shares that were acquired under the takeover bid. Thus, if the bidder acquires 66⅔% of the outstanding shares, in most cases, it will have sufficient votes to obtain the majority of the minority approval.
Compulsory Acquisition
Under corporate law, if a bidder obtains 90% of the outstanding shares subject to the bid within 120 days of the commencement of the bid, it can acquire all of the shares that remain outstanding for the same price as was offered under the bid. This compulsory acquisition procedure does not require a shareholder vote.
Shareholders that did not tender to the bid are provided with dissent rights that allow them to apply to a court to fix the fair value of their shares.
Before launching a bid, it is common for the bidder to enter into lock-up agreements with major target shareholders whereby the shareholders agree that they will tender to the bid. A “soft” lock-up allows a shareholder the right to withdraw and accept a higher offer, while a “hard” or irrevocable lock-up does not. Hard lock-ups are less common, and are generally time-limited.
A takeover bid in Canada is launched by:
The advertisement method is typically used in hostile bids when the acquiror does not have access to the shareholder lists to complete the mailing itself and does not want to request the list in advance for fear of tipping off the target. Once the advertisement is placed, the acquiror must request the shareholder list from the target and mail the circular to target shareholders.
In the context of an amalgamation, arrangement or other business combination, public companies in Canada are required to disclose material changes, which may include the decision to implement these kinds of transactions at the board level or by senior management if they believe board approval is probable.
If the consideration for a bid is to be shares or partly shares, the bidder must provide prospectus-level disclosure.
The target must publicly file a directors’ circular, prepared by its board, which includes the board’s recommendations regarding the bid and other information.
An acquiror providing share consideration must provide its audited financial statements for the past three years, interim financial statements if available, and pro forma financial statements that give effect to the acquisition.
The financials must include a statement of the financial position of the issuer as at the beginning of the earliest comparative period for which financial statements that are included comply with the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in certain cases. If the statements are the first IFRS financial statements prepared by the issuer, the issuer must include the opening IFRS statement of financial position at the date of transition to IFRS.
The pro forma financial statements must be those that would be required in a prospectus, assuming that the likelihood of the acquisition is high and that the acquisition is a significant acquisition for the acquiror.
If the acquiror is a reporting issuer, it may incorporate by reference its existing continuous disclosure.
Securities laws in Canada require that annual and quarterly financial statements of reporting issuers be prepared in accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) applicable to publicly accountable enterprises and disclose, in the case of annual financial statements, an unreserved statement of compliance with IFRS. GAAP, in the context of Canadian securities regulation, must be determined in accordance with the Handbook of the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants.
In a takeover bid, the following transaction documents are required to be disclosed in full:
In a plan of arrangement or other business combination, the following documents are required to be disclosed in full:
Reporting issuers are required to meet certain continuous disclosure obligations and file material contracts on SEDAR+.
Directors’ duties in Canada include the following:
In discharging their fiduciary duties, directors must exercise their powers for the benefit of the corporation and not for an improper purpose.
These duties are owed to the corporation even in the context of a business combination or a hostile bid. However, the Supreme Court of Canada has confirmed that directors are permitted to consider the interests of a variety of stakeholders in fulfilling their responsibilities. This stakeholder-friendly corporate governance model has been codified in the Canadian federal corporate statute.
The common law provides guidance as to which stakeholders’ interests may be considered, but does not provide guidance on whose interests, if any, should be prioritised. Although directors do not owe a fiduciary duty to shareholders and the “Revlon duty” (ie, when a break-up or change of control transaction is inevitable, the board’s fiduciary duty is to maximise shareholder value) has not been upheld by Canadian courts, directors are not prohibited from taking steps to maximise shareholder value or prioritise shareholders over other stakeholders.
As of 2024, directors of Canadian corporations involved in producing, selling, distributing or importing goods in or outside Canada have a new responsibility: to approve an annual report detailing the steps the company has taken to prevent and reduce the risk that forced labour or child labour is used in any step of its operations.
Special committees comprised of target directors who are independent of a proposed transaction are often established to evaluate the terms of the transaction. They may also:
It is common for target boards to establish special committees in business combinations involving a related party. Special committees are required by Multilateral Instrument 61-101 (MI 61-101) in certain circumstances when one or more directors have a conflict of interest. Members of the special committee must be free of real or perceived conflicts.
Courts will often consider whether and at what time in the process of a transaction a special committee was formed and the procedures it followed in evaluating the transaction. Establishing a special committee as soon as possible and before the material terms of a transaction are in place is a way to show that directors’ decisions have been made without conflicts.
Directors are provided a high level of deference at common law. Canadian courts have recognised the “business judgement rule”, which sets out that a court should not substitute its own decisions for those decisions made by directors, and deference should be accorded to business decisions of directors provided they are taken in good faith and within a range of reasonableness in the performance of the functions the directors were elected to perform by the shareholders.
If directors act independently, in good faith and on an informed basis in a way that they reasonably believe is in the best interests of the corporation, courts generally will defer to their judgement.
Independent outside advice is commonly given to directors in a business combination from:
Under Canadian corporate law, if a director is a party to a transaction with the corporation, is a director or officer of a party to the transaction or has a material interest in a party to transaction, the director must disclose the nature and extent of this interest and may be required to refrain from voting on the matter.
Under Canadian securities law, MI 61-101 regulates transactions with potential conflicts of interest. This instrument provides procedural protections for minority shareholders. Depending on the type of transaction, the following may be required:
MI 61-101 encourages, but does not require, targets to form special committees and encourages the formation of a special committee in any transaction to which MI 61-101 applies.
Conflicts of interest of directors, managers, shareholders or advisers have been the subject of judicial and regulatory scrutiny as well. Securities regulators in Canada have, in particular, examined the question of whether a party is a joint actor with the acquiror. This is a factual analysis, and its finding may have an impact on whether the transaction is an insider bid or related party transaction and hence subject to the additional requirements under MI 61-101 set forth above.
Hostile takeover bids are permitted in Canada but are not very common as the takeover bid regime is relatively target friendly.
Canadian securities laws allow directors to use measures to defend against hostile takeovers. Regulators may intervene when defensive measures are likely to deny or severely limit the ability of shareholders to respond to a takeover bid.
Shareholder Rights Plans
Shareholder rights plans or poison pills are often used by target companies to defend against hostile bids. Rights plans will not block hostile bids entirely but are instead a way to encourage the fair treatment of shareholders in connection with a bid and to allow the target board and shareholders to respond to and consider the bid. They also allow time for the target board to seek available alternatives and prevent creeping takeovers. See 4.3 Hurdles to Stakebuilding.
Crown Jewel/Scorched Earth
A target may attempt to restructure or recapitalise so as to provide shareholders with cash value, for instance, by selling a significant asset in order to become less attractive to a bidder. The directors must undertake a “crown jewel” transaction with a view to the best interests of the corporation, and the sale must have a demonstrable business purpose. The board of a target may also decide to substantially increase long-term debt and concurrently declare special dividends to distribute cash to its shareholders.
Defensive Private Placements
Private placements that have the effect of blocking a bid have been recognised by Canadian securities regulators as a possible defensive tactic, but they could be found to be inappropriate if they are abusive or frustrate the ability of shareholders to respond to a bid or competing bids.
Golden Parachutes
Golden parachutes for key employees may be triggered if such employees are terminated after a third-party acquisition.
White Knight
Targets may seek an alternative transaction with a friendly party or a “white knight” that might offer more value (or in some cases more preferential terms or deal certainty) to its shareholders than the original bidder.
Issuer Bid
If a target is unable to find a white knight, it may offer to repurchase its outstanding shares itself.
Pac-Man
A target might flip the script and make a bid for the shares of the hostile bidder.
Advance Notice By-Law
A target’s by-laws or other constating documents may be amended to require advance notice of shareholder nominations for members to the board of directors, thereby giving the target the time to strategically respond to a proxy fight in the context of a hostile bid.
Canadian directors owe the same duties when they are enacting defensive measures as in any other context. Boards in Canada owe a fiduciary duty to the corporation, not to the shareholders, and are not required to conduct an auction once a company is “in play”.
This principle is especially important for nominee directors, who should be careful to manage conflicts of interest and only share information with their nominating shareholder with the consent of the company.
Canadian courts have held that the conduct of directors will be analysed on an objective standard of what a reasonably prudent person would do in comparable circumstances. See 8.3 Business Judgement Rule.
Target boards in Canada cannot “just say no” in the same way that this strategy is understood in the USA. Canadian directors of public companies, while they may implement defensive measures, are not able to indefinitely prevent a bid from being presented to the shareholders.
M&A litigation in Canada is not as prevalent as in other jurisdictions such as the USA. Class action securities litigation is relatively new in Canada. Parties involved in private acquisitions will often choose arbitration over litigation to provide them with greater efficiency and confidentiality.
Notably, there has been a rise in the use of representation and warranty insurance, which serves as the primary recourse for a breach of representations by the company or its security holders in instances where a policy has been put in place as part of closing.
Litigation can occur at any stage of a transaction. A plan of arrangement requires court approval, which provides a forum for aggrieved stakeholders.
Other remedial avenues for stakeholders include a cease-trade order or other relief preventing the consummation of a takeover bid from a securities regulator.
Courts will typically uphold agreements in the M&A context and only in exceptional circumstances will they find an agreement unenforceable or allow parties to walk away from an agreement.
See 3.1 Significant Court Decisions or Legal Developments.
Although Canada is seen by some as an activist-friendly jurisdiction, levels of shareholder activism tend to lag behind levels of activity in the USA and Europe, particularly among large-cap Canadian issuers.
In 2024, a significant proportion of shareholder demands focused on M&A and ESG matters.
Typically, an activist’s first step is to approach a board confidentially with their demands, with the implicit or explicit threat of a public battle if the requirements are not met. From there, activism can take many forms.
Board activism and proxy fights are prominent in Canada, in which shareholders seek to have their nominees put forward for election to the board. In 2024, activists had two high-profile wins, with the replacement of the entire board of both Gildan and Dye & Durham.
While shareholder proposals on matters within the board’s purview are only advisory and not binding, they remain important forms of activism as the publicity they attract can create pressure for change.
Transactional activists sometimes demand strategic reviews, divestitures, share buy-backs or increased dividends. They might requisition a shareholder meeting, wage a public broadcast campaign in the media or on social media, or launch their own competing tender offer. Sometimes the goal is to see an alternative transaction implemented; other times, activists try to improve the terms of the original deal.
In transactional shareholder activism, announced transactions are frequently a target for campaigns. In some notable examples, shareholders issued open letters advocating for higher values for their shares and engaged securities regulators to address claims of unequal treatment, called on a board to launch strategic reviews of fossil-fuel assets, and requisitioned a shareholder meeting in response to a REIT’s plan to sell off some real estate assets.
However, courts may interfere with such activism to help secure the required shareholder vote. Recently, the British Columbia court permitted the option holders of Fission Uranium to exercise their options such that they become part of the shareholder vote, thereby overcoming the opposition and approving a plan of arrangement.
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kevin.west@skylaw.ca www.skylaw.caCanada at War
The United States wants to annex Canada, using tariffs and turmoil (so far) as weapons. Canada is fighting back. The resulting uncertainty creates risks and opportunities for deal makers.
Introduction
It seemed like a joke at first. On 29 November 2024, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made an unannounced visit to Mar-a-Lago after President-Elect Donald Trump had threatened Canada with tariffs. According to sources, Mr Trudeau told Mr Trump that he cannot levy the tariffs because it would kill the Canadian economy completely. Mr Trump then suggested that Canada become the 51st state. The prime minister laughed nervously. No one is laughing now.
On taking office in January 2025, President Trump followed through on his threats and announced a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods. He said that he would lift them if America could annex Canada. Mr Trump confirmed in an interview on 9 February 2025 that his threat to absorb Canada is “a real thing”. On 4 March 2025, at 12:01 a.m., the tariffs came into effect. Canada responded immediately with its own tariffs and promised further non-tariff retaliation.
This is more than just a trade war. In an article for The Economist, Chrystia Freeland, the former deputy prime minister of Canada, wrote that these threats represent such a gross violation of international norms that they put the entire basis of global trade rules and international relations at risk. She believes future historians may judge this moment as “marking the end of the rules-based international order that was built atop the bloody ruins of the Second World War and that has brought peace and prosperity to so many for so long”.
Since then, the United States has announced significant tariffs, and then paused them, on dozens of countries. The basis for the tariffs is bizarrely random. Famously, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on all exports from the Heard Island and the McDonald Islands, which are home to four kinds of penguins but no humans. The widespread havoc of the illogical and, as many consider, illegal, whipsaw tariffs has caused a global stock market crash and raised a very real possibility of a global recession.
What comes next is anyone’s guess. Tariffs can cause prices to rise and growth to slow. The uncertainty about the nature and extent of the tariffs and escalating reciprocal tariffs, combined with the larger geo-political threats, are expected to make deal makers cautious. However, there exist significant areas of opportunity in a number of sectors. The authors anticipate that 2025 will be a challenging year for deal makers, for Canada, and for the world.
The economic uncertainty is slowing M&A activity
This time last year, the authors wrote that the prospect of a second presidency for Donald Trump raised the possibility of increased tariffs and trade wars, resulting in greater uncertainty for businesses. For the most part, it appears that businesses shrugged off the risk. Markets soared through 2024, businesses expanded and deals kept getting done. Now that Mr Trump is president and the risk of tariffs is real, businesses are carefully considering the impact tariffs will have.
M&A activity in Canada was set to improve in 2025 as interest rates fell and investor confidence improved. However, the threat of tariffs creates significant uncertainty for businesses and is making acquirors in affected industries very cautious. As the likelihood and duration of tariffs are unknown, valuations become increasingly difficult. A day after imposing the tariffs on all goods from Canada, the USA gave a 30-day reprieve to automakers, whose parts can cross the border multiple times, reportedly as a result of pressure from the CEOs of the big three automakers. The uncertainty is unsettling for market participants. As a result, M&A activity so far in 2025 is far below the same period in previous years. Many participants will be sitting on the sidelines to see what is next.
Why tariffs matter
Canada is the largest trading partner of the United States. Tariffs imposed by the United States make Canadian products less competitive, leading to a decline in exports from Canada. Compounding the issue, in response to Mr Trump’s tariff threats, Canada has imposed retaliatory tariffs. Mr Trump has promised to match any tariffs imposed on US products. This spiralling tariff environment will be devastating for Canadian businesses that depend on exports to the United States. On top of that, economic activity in the United States has been slowing, with Mr Trump’s abrupt moves to shrink federal spending and halt regulatory activity. Consumer confidence is down, inflation will be accelerating. In the current environment, an economic slowdown seems inevitable in both the United States and Canada.
The United States has imposed tariffs on Mexico and every other country as well. Economists expect that these tariffs will reduce global exports and that global gross domestic product will decline. As a result, commodity prices, including the price of oil, could be negatively impacted, producing a double whammy for Canada since oil is one of Canada’s largest exports.
The challenge, above all, is that the nature and extent of the possible tariffs are still unknown. It makes planning incredibly difficult. Tariffs can cause significant damage to an economy. Productivity, wages and economic growth are likely to fall while prices rise to absorb the tariffs and the disruptions to supply chains. Moreover, the threat alone of tariffs can cause such significant uncertainty that it impacts M&A activity. In this case, the threat of tariffs is animated by Mr Trump’s desire to annex Canada, opening the door to potentially significant changes in all areas of the USA–Canada relationship.
Considerations for transaction documents
Investors doing business in Canada should review their transaction documents in light of the tariffs and turmoil. Many of the considerations are the same as those that were discussed at the time of the COVID-19 disruptions. When drafting M&A agreements, the parties will need to negotiate the allocation of the risk of escalating and punitive tariffs and other government actions.
Material adverse change clauses
Review your agreement to consider if a change in law or government action could be considered a material adverse change that would allow you to terminate your contract. Often in M&A agreements, the material adverse change definition excludes a change that applies generally. It is unlikely that the blanket tariffs that have been announced would be a material adverse change. Furthermore, courts in Canada demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic a reluctance to terminate agreements based on the material adverse change clause.
Force majeure clauses
Force majeure clauses will be interpreted based on the language used. It would be unlikely to find a clause that provides for increased costs or taxes to be a ground for termination. However, some force majeure clauses may allow for termination due to delay, which may be triggered if supply chains are disrupted.
Termination clauses
With new protectionist policies from all levels of government, diligence will need to be performed to determine the extent to which the government can cancel an existing agreement and the amount of compensation, if any, that might be available.
Procurement policies
It is yet to be seen how governments will impose restrictions on US businesses in procurement contracts. We expect that counterparties will look to determine if the entity is beneficially owned by a US person. Businesses that rely on government contracts will need to carefully consider the new rules and the risks of further changes.
Which goods and businesses are subject to tariffs?
Most of the tariffs announced by the United States apply across the board without exemptions. This causes a challenge for exporters who have not had to worry about tariffs in the past. Specific industries have been targeted with additional tariffs, including the auto sector, steel and aluminium and softwood lumber. Technology and services will not be directly impacted by tariffs at the moment, but this could change. The United States is also targeting retaliation for Canada’s digital tax.
What steps can be taken when there is a slowdown?
If the tariffs and turmoil result in a slowdown of activity, investors will need to consider how costs can be reduced. Employee layoffs are a challenge and in Canada may entail significant near-term costs. Collective bargaining agreements should be reviewed. Agreements with clients and suppliers will need to be carefully considered.
Potential acquirors should consider the Canadian response
Canada is taking firm and direct action in retaliation for the tariffs. In response to the 4 March 2025 tariffs, then-Prime Minister Trudeau addressed the nation and promised immediate and wide-ranging retaliatory tariffs, as well as unspecified non-tariff measures.
According to a survey by KPMG released earlier this year, nine in ten Canadian business leaders believe Canadian governments must stand firm in protecting Canada’s sovereignty and values and over eight in ten want a targeted, dollar-for-dollar retaliatory response and are willing to suffer short-term pain.
Investment Canada Act
Investments by non-Canadians are subject to the Investment Canada Act. This is an inherently political tool for the government to block or impose conditions on investments from acquirors or in industries that the government is sensitive to. Recently, a large focus of the government was on acquisitions by nations such as China and Russia in critical minerals. US investors were often given a friendly pass. Not any longer. With the USA aligning itself with Russia, and as a way of retaliating against the USA, we expect the Canadian government to subject many more US investments to scrutiny under the Investment Canada Act.
Moreover, the Prime Minister in his 4 March 2025 address made clear that Canada will take measures to prevent predatory behaviour that threatens Canadian companies because of the impacts of this trade war, leaving them open to takeovers. Investments from US companies are now expected to be subject to a higher level of scrutiny under the Investment Canada Act (perhaps to the same extent as an investment from Russia.)
On 5 March 2025, the Canadian government updated the guidelines to the Investment Canada Act to include the potential of an investment to undermine Canada’s economic security as a factor to consider. The stated concern is that in the “rapidly shifting trade environment” (a delicate way of referring to the trade war), some Canadian businesses could see their valuations decline, making them susceptible to opportunistic or predatory investment behaviour by non-Canadians. When these businesses are important to Canada’s economic resiliency due to their size, their impact on the innovation ecosystem, or their place in Canadian supply chains or those of allies on whom Canada relies, the Canadian government has taken the position that it would run counter to Canada’s interest to allow them to fall victim to this type of behaviour to the detriment of Canada’s national security. The announcement did not identify US investors specifically so it is likely that all non-Canadian investors will be subject to this additional level of scrutiny. Foreign acquirors of Canadian companies or assets should prepare for increased closing timelines in the event the ICA approval process becomes more aggressive.
Government procurement
All levels of government are contemplating excluding US companies from government procurement. Ontario, for example, has announced that US companies will be banned from CAD30 billion worth of procurement contracts. Many cities are doing the same. There will be varying rules about US ownership and it is not clear the extent to which having a Canadian presence will be sufficient.
Immigration policies
Canada has long prided itself on its welcoming immigration policy. Many companies find Canada to be more attractive than the U.S. when they need workers since visas are more plentiful and faster in Canada. This may change. Canada is already committed to reducing the number of temporary foreign workers allowed into Canada.
Tax policies
A key government tool is tax policy. There is growing discomfort at the number of ostensibly Canadian companies that have US owners and yet receive generous subsidies or investment tax credits, such as the Scientific Research and Experimental Development (SR&ED) tax credit. The Canadian government may revisit its tax policies in order to provide better protection for Canadian companies.
Free trade agreements are in tatters
The tariffs imposed by the United States are a clear breach of the United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement (the USMCA). Canada is filing a grievance under the USMCA, for what that is worth. Donald Trump took credit for renegotiating the USMCA in his first term as the President and has now effectively ripped it up.
Canada will be cautious in its future negotiations with the United States given that it is now viewed as an unreliable trading partner. The USMCA covers a lot of different industries, all of which may be subject to changing government policies. The USMCA by its terms is up for renewal in the summer of 2026. There is little doubt that those negotiations will be challenging.
The new opportunities for investment in Canada
Canada is rethinking pipelines and other major economic investments
Canada has traditionally been very slow to approve major infrastructure projects. A proposed LNG pipeline to the Atlantic Ocean had met with stiff opposition. This is all changing. Canada sees the need to focus its infrastructure on trading with friendly nations in Europe.
Donald Trump is rethinking pipelines too
The Biden administration cancelled the Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta to the United States, primarily for environmental concerns. Calgary-based TC Energy sued the US government unsuccessfully for USD15 billion in losses due to the cancellation. Mr Trump now says that he would like to see the pipeline proceed.
Military spending is set to soar
Canada recognises that it needs to spend more on its military. Canada has pledged to meet its NATO commitments of meeting its 2% of GDP target. Canada recognises that it can no longer rely on the United States for its military security.
Interprovincial trade barriers
Canada has an embarrassing number of internal trade barriers. Provinces charge levies on goods such as alcohol crossing provincial borders. Governments and businesses are moving to remove those trade barriers.
Increased focus on supply chains and markets in other parts of the world
The trend to “friend-shoring” started shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine. Many Canadian businesses will now be looking to friendly partners in other parts of the world given the disruption to supply chains with the United States.
Canadian businesses are attractive acquisition targets
There is likely to be a lot of interest in Canadian companies. The trade war is likely to result in lower net export volumes and weaker terms of trade lead, and lead to a further depreciation of the Canadian dollar, making acquisitions in Canada cheaper. The uncertainty of tariffs will likely push valuations down.
However, the Canadian government is rightly concerned about predatory takeovers of Canadian companies. There is an increased risk of the Canadian government restricting or blocking acquisitions by non-Canadians on economic grounds.
Canada’s relationship with the United States is permanently changed
The rules-based international order has been abandoned. There is no longer any belief that we can achieve peace through prosperity. The United States has articulated its new policy as “peace through strength”. As a result, borders can change, or become blurred. Markets and supply chains are disrupted. Tariffs and the retaliation they bring also poison economic and security alliances. There is no clear path forward. It is clear that the objective of the United States is to achieve greater access to Canada’s minerals by forcing economic hardship. Canada will fight back. The outcome is uncertain; Mr Trump could reverse course (unlikely), some type of EU-style economic deal may be negotiated, or the United States could absorb Canada, through threat or through force. The alignment of the United States with Russia that has been made evident by Mr Trump’s position on Ukraine makes Canada particularly vulnerable as it sits between the two countries, with vast mineral wealth, particularly in the Arctic. It is not inconceivable that Russia and the United States carve up Canada the way they are carving up Ukraine. In any event, Canada’s relationship with the United States is permanently changed. On 27 March 2025, the new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced to the world that Canada’s “old relationship” with the United States is over.
Canada is fighting back
Former prime minister Stephen Harper says he would be prepared to accept “any level of damage” and would “impoverish the country” in order not to be annexed. This sentiment is widely accepted in Canada. Canadians are fighting back – literally fighting in the case of hockey. At a game between Team Canada and Team USA. played in Montreal on 15 February 2025, shortly after Mr Trump’s initial tariff threats, the normally polite Canadian fans booed the American national anthem with conviction, and within the first nine seconds of the game there were three spirited fist fights on the ice as the players acted as proxy for the angry crowd. Canada eventually won the tournament in overtime against the United States, swelling Canada with pride. The fight isn’t over.
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