Estonia participates in investor–state arbitration through its ratification of various bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and multilateral treaties.
Historically, Estonia has been a country that has honoured its commitment to arbitrating investors’ claims in arbitration. Estonia has expressed no reluctance to join treaties with investor–state arbitration clauses, nor has it expressed a wish to terminate any BITs on its own initiative.
While the intra-EU BITs have been terminated or have ceased to be in force, this is solely because of the EU’s internal policies and laws, and is aligned with EU integration dynamics rather than being a specific policy against investor–state dispute settlement (ISDS).
More recently, Estonia has adopted an FDI screening regime (Foreign Investment Reliability Assessment Act, FIRAA), effective since 1 September 2023, which focuses on national security and public order concerns. While the adoption of FIRAA suggests a more careful regulatory stance, this does not directly appear to affect Estonia’s ISDS treaty obligations. Estonia continues to negotiate new BITs with third countries where its nationals and companies have commercial interests.
Estonia is a party to the 1958 New York Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards as well as the ICSID Convention.
Additionally, as Estonia is part of the EU, an additional layer of treaty obligations (eg, EU investment and arbitration rules) and constraints apply, especially in relation to intra‑EU investment disputes.
The number of ISDS cases involving Estonia is relatively low. There have been five known ISDS cases against Estonia under various BITs (namely, the Estonia–USA BIT, Estonia–Finland BIT, Estonia–Germany BIT and Estonia–Netherlands BIT).
Thus, ISDS is not particularly prevalent. In many instances, contractual or domestic remedies are used first, including exhausting all means of litigation in domestic courts before pursuing arbitration, while most cases are resolved via negotiations or settlement.
As a small and diversified economy, Estonia has not seen a concentration of investor–state arbitration claims in any one particular industry. Instead, disputes have arisen across various sectors. This might be attributed to the fact that Estonia’s economy is not heavily reliant on extractive industries, large-scale infrastructure projects, or other sectors that commonly dominate ISDS caseloads in larger jurisdictions. Additionally, many investments are in light industries, ICT and services, which often rely less on state contracts or concessions and more on open-market dynamics, reducing the frequency of treaty-based disputes.
While no single industry stands out as disproportionately involved in investor–state arbitrations in Estonia, disputes have tended to cluster in sectors where the state has regulatory authority, historical legal complexities or legacy obligations. These include public utilities, property restitution and financial services. This reflects the nature of a small, open economy where a variety of industries may generate isolated but high-stakes disputes rather than a pattern of systemic conflict in any one sector.
AS Tallinna Vesi and United Utilities (Tallinn) B.V. v Republic of Estonia (ICSID Case No. ARB/14/24)
Brought under the Estonia–Netherlands BIT (1992)
Case initiated in 2014
Award rendered in 2019
Facts of the case
Key legal principles
Fair and equitable treatment (FET) and legitimate expectations
Umbrella clause and contractual rights
Expropriation
Outcome
Legal significance
ELA USA, Inc. v Republic of Estonia
Brought under the Estonia–United States of America BIT (1994)
Case initiated in 2018
Award rendered in 2025
Facts of the case
Key legal principles
Definition of “investment” and ownership/validity of title
Fair and equitable treatment (FET)
Discrimination claims
Illegality/bad faith
Jurisdictional objections/admissibility
Outcome
Legal significance
OKO Pankki Oyj and Others v Republic of Estonia (ICSID Case No. ARB/04/6)
Brought under the Estonia–Germany BIT (1992) and the Estonia–Finland BIT (1992)
Case initiated in 2004
Award rendered in 2007
Facts of the case
Key legal principles
Fair and equitable treatment (FET) and denial of justice
Expropriation
Attribution of conduct
Outcome
Legal significance
In the only known ISDS case where an award was made against the state – OKO v Estonia – Estonia did not pursue annulment proceedings and complied with the award voluntarily. There is no evidence of any refusal to pay awards.
As such, according to known case law, Estonia remains an arbitration-friendly jurisdiction and has not sought annulment proceedings relating to ISDS awards made against it.
Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs)
Estonia has ratified a total of 32 BITs; 14 of these are currently in force. Following the Court of Justice of the European Union’s Achmea and Komstroy rulings, Estonia has terminated or suspended the operation of intra-EU BITs.
The BITs currently in force are as follows:
1. Estonia–Switzerland BIT (1992);
2. Estonia–China BIT (1993);
3. Estonia–Israel BIT (1994);
4. Estonia–United States of America BIT (1994);
5. Estonia–Ukraine BIT (1995);
6. Estonia–Turkey BIT (1997);
7. Estonia–Viet Nam BIT (2009);
8. Estonia–Morocco BIT (2009);
9. Estonia–Georgia BIT (2009);
10. Estonia–Azerbaijan BIT (2010);
11. Estonia–Jordan BIT (2010);
12. Estonia–Moldova BIT (2010);
13. Estonia–Kazakhstan BIT (2011); and
14. Estonia–United Arab Emirates BIT (2011).
While Estonia always strives to improve its trade relations, particularly with developing economies, and is therefore constantly exploring opportunities for new BITs, it must also bear in mind the EU law constraints and its FDI screening framework. Per public information, there are no new BITs currently in negotiation.
Multilateral Investment Treaties (MITs)
Estonia does not use a specific “Estonia model BIT” that is distinct and published. The BITs follow fairly standard templates for the promotion and protection of investments, fair and equitable treatment, non-discrimination, expropriation with compensation, and other provisions.
Additionally, as a member of the EU, Estonia is guided by the policies and directions of the EU when drafting and negotiating BITs. For example, Estonia can take guidance from the aiding tools and instructions published by the EU, such as the European Union Model BIT Clauses (2023), which seek to ensure that investment protections in BITs concluded between EU member states and third countries are consistent and harmonised with EU law and policy.
As an EU member, Estonia is party to the EU’s trade agreements and subject to its internal market rules and the investment protection elements in EU agreements (eg, EU–New Zealand FTA (2023), EU–Viet Nam FTA (2019), EU–Singapore FTA (2018), EU–Korea FTA (2010), etc).
While Estonia’s treaties may have preambles, exchange of notes and standard treaty texts, there is no well‑known, widely used published commentary or model treaty with interpretive notes specific to Estonia.
Domestic courts (especially the Supreme Court) have, in some instances, clarified how public policy is interpreted, what non‑arbitrable disputes are, etc. These act as interpretive precedents.
There is no single comprehensive Estonian national investment law (in the sense of a law that mirrors treaty protections for foreign investors across the board) that provides exactly the same protection as treaty obligations. Estonia protects foreign investment through treaties, domestic constitutional property rights, general civil law, etc.
More recently, the Foreign Investment Reliability Assessment Act (from 2023) provides regulatory oversight/screening of certain foreign investments in strategic sectors. It does not replace treaty protections or arbitration rights, but imposes prior authorisation in certain sectors for non‑EU investors.
Direct arbitration clauses in contracts between the state (or state‑owned entities) and investors are possible, but their frequency is less well documented, as many investors rely on treaty protections/BITs rather than contract‑based arbitration.
The protection offered by individual contract clauses depends on their terms (seat of arbitration, rules, enforcement) and must be respected under domestic contract law as well. Treaty protections often add additional layers (eg, minimum standards, protections in BITs, and the ability to go to ISDS) that a contract alone may not provide (eg, contract claims may be limited in scope or subject to domestic courts; treaty claims may allow direct access to arbitration under international rules).
From the known ISDS claims involving Estonia, the frequent complaints or issues include:
Estonia’s arbitration law for both domestic/international arbitrations largely imports or is compatible with the UNCITRAL Model Rules.
A natural person of full active legal capacity may be appointed as an arbitrator. An arbitrator may be recused if circumstances are present that cast a reasonable doubt concerning their impartiality, independence or competence or if they do not fulfil the requirements agreed by the parties. Estonian courts treat arbitrator independence as a core legal value and a matter of public policy. If an arbitrator acts in a way that is not independent or impartial (eg, protecting one party’s interests), that can be grounds for refusing enforcement provided that the misconduct can be proven.
Under Estonia’s arbitration law, parties may freely agree on the rules for appointing arbitrators. If their chosen method fails, default procedures apply:
As mentioned in 4.2 Default Procedures, in certain circumstances, a state court may appoint an arbitrator on the petition of a party.
Under the applicable laws, the court must appoint the arbitrator within 30 days following the reception of the corresponding petition.
Additionally, when appointing the arbitrator, the court has regard to the following:
The parties cannot appeal the order by which the state court appoints an arbitrator.
Under Estonian law, an arbitrator may be recused if circumstances raise reasonable doubts about their impartiality, independence or competence, or if they fail to meet agreed qualifications. A party may challenge its own appointee if the grounds for recusal became known after appointment.
Arbitrator candidates must promptly disclose any circumstances that could raise doubts about their impartiality or independence. This duty continues throughout the proceedings, and arbitrators must immediately notify the parties of any such developments.
If an arbitrator cannot perform their duties within a reasonable time, their mandate ends upon self-recusal or by agreement of the parties. If the arbitrator refuses to step down or no agreement is reached, either party may petition the court to terminate the mandate, unless otherwise agreed.
The parties may agree on recusal procedures. If no such rules exist, a party may request recusal within 15 days of the tribunal’s formation or of learning of the relevant circumstances. If the arbitrator declines to step down or the other party objects, the tribunal – without the challenged arbitrator – decides the matter.
If the issue cannot be resolved under the agreed or default procedures, a party may petition the court within 30 days of learning that its motion was rejected. The tribunal may suspend proceedings until the court’s decision.
Arbitrators must be impartial and independent, and disclose potential conflicts. These requirements derive from international conventions, arbitration rules, and Estonian judicial interpretation of public policy under the New York Convention.
Unless the parties have agreed otherwise, arbitral tribunals may grant interim relief on a party’s application. However, measures of interim relief that restrict personal freedoms may not be imposed. The arbitral tribunal may, in connection with interim relief, require both parties to provide reasonable security.
The decision on interim relief is enforced on the basis of a state court order. The court makes the order on the petition of the party and allows the decision to be enforced only if the relevant measure of interim relief has not already been sought from the court. The court may rephrase the interim relief order if this is needed to apply the relief. In relation to the petition filed with the court, security must be provided analogously with interim relief in relation to a court claim.
As mentioned in 5.1 Types of Relief, under Estonian law, arbitral tribunals’ decisions on interim relief are enforced through a state court order. The court makes the order on the petition of the party and allows the decision to be enforced only if the relevant measure of interim relief has not already been sought from the court. The court may rephrase the interim relief order if this is needed to apply the relief. In relation to the petition filed with the court, security must be provided analogously with interim relief in relation to a court claim.
Further, the court may, on petition, revoke or vary interim relief on the same grounds and following the same rules that apply when granting interim relief in relation to a court claim dealt with in judicial proceedings.
Additionally, until the formation of the arbitral tribunal to resolve the dispute, the competent body of the tribunal may transmit a party’s application for interim relief to the court. The application is disposed of following the rules provided by law for disposing of such applications.
Estonia’s legal framework does not place any restrictions on courts and arbitral tribunals to order security for costs. Both courts and arbitral tribunals have discretion in this regard.
Estonia’s legal framework does not regulate or place any restrictions on third-party funding of investor–state claims. As case law is limited due to the low number of ISDS cases in Estonia, no consistent practice has been established in this regard.
There is no known case law specific to Estonia that addresses third‑party funding, its disclosure or its regulation.
The only ISDS case involving Estonia where third-party funding has been discussed and disclosed is the ELA v Estonia case, where the claimant disclosed its third-party funder. However, in that case, the place of arbitration was Geneva, Switzerland, and thus the domestic laws and regulations of Estonia did not apply.
As mentioned in 6.2 Third-Party Funding Case Law, there are no regulations or known case law specific to Estonia that address third‑party funding, its disclosure or its regulation. As such, it is difficult to predict how tribunals and courts would treat the existence of third-party funding when, eg, considering applications for security for costs.
The applicable Estonian laws do not set out requirements for a notice of dispute or a consultation period. In practice, the investor may need to follow treaty‑specified procedural requirements as Estonia’s treaties typically include a dispute resolution clause under which investors must give notice and allow time for amicable settlement. This is standard in many BITs.
In its approach to transparency in ISDS, Estonia largely follows the example and guidance of EU policy, which favours greater transparency (eg, the EU’s approval of the UN Convention on Transparency in Treaty-based Investor-State Arbitration). For example, the recordings of the hearing in AS Tallinna Vesi and United Utilities (Tallinn) B.V. v Republic of Estonia (ICSID Case No. ARB/14/24) were publicly available for viewing for quite some time. Additionally, most of the key case materials, such as procedural orders, the tribunal’s decisions and the award, are still publicly available on the ICSID website. The same is true for OKO Pankki Oyj and Others v Republic of Estonia (ICSID Case No. ARB/04/6), where Estonia was held liable for a breach of the BIT. Additionally, the latest 2025 award in ELA USA, Inc. v Republic of Estonia is also publicly available.
The above confirms that the Estonian state welcomes transparency in ISDS proceedings and decisions and does not seek to shield itself from public scrutiny.
Tribunals can award monetary damages, interest and costs (legal, expert, institutional) if the treaty/arbitration rules allow.
Estonia does not impose domestic law limits on types of remedies in ISDS beyond what the applicable treaty and arbitration rules allow. However, as punitive damages are not part of the Estonian legal system and their award is not allowed under domestic law, such a remedy might be contrary to public policy and thus unenforceable.
Standard valuation methodologies are common in Estonia, namely, discounted cash flow, market value and loss of profits; sometimes cost‑based approaches are used depending on the treaty, the sector, and the nature of the investment.
Parties are entitled to recover interest as well as legal and expert fees and arbitral institution costs. Under Estonian law, unless otherwise agreed by the parties, the arbitral tribunal, in its decision, rules on the allocation, between the parties, of the costs of arbitration proceedings and of the necessary costs incurred by the parties as a result of attending the proceedings. Where the amount of the costs has not been determined or cannot be determined before the end of arbitration proceedings, the costs are dealt with in a separate decision of the arbitral tribunal.
A ‘costs follow the event’ approach is commonly adopted, though the exact allocation depends on the treaty, the specific tribunal, the rules, and the conduct of the parties.
There is a general expectation that investors should mitigate losses.
Estonia enforces foreign arbitral awards under its domestic law (Code of Civil Procedure) and obligations under treaties/conventions (eg, New York Convention and ICSID Convention).
While ICSID awards are enforceable as though they were final and enforceable decisions of national courts of Estonia, to enforce other ISDS awards, one often must apply to an Estonian court to recognise an award under the New York Convention. Courts check whether grounds for refusal apply (eg, invalid arbitration agreement, lack of due notice, scope beyond submission, composition of tribunal, subject matter non‑arbitrable, public policy).
If an award has been set aside by the courts at the seat of arbitration, Estonian courts may refuse enforcement. Additionally, if there are ongoing annulment/set-aside proceedings, these may affect enforcement (but details depend on specific circumstances).
As to sovereign immunity, Estonia is guided by international law and practice. There is no case law of Estonian courts regarding the upholding of sovereign immunity to avoid the enforcement of an ISDS award.
Estonian courts are generally arbitration‑friendly, meaning they tend to enforce foreign arbitral awards unless strong grounds for refusal exist. The Supreme Court has made statements to this effect.
Additionally, Estonian courts define public policy narrowly. For example, in case 2‑18‑4731, the Supreme Court held that not all mandatory provisions are public policy – only core values such as arbitrator independence, non‑arbitrability, etc.
As is typical in small jurisdictions, enforcement depends on whether there are identifiable state or state‑entity assets in Estonia or elsewhere that can be attached.
Estonian courts consistently recognise foreign arbitral awards and permit their enforcement through bailiffs. As holders of a public-law office, bailiffs possess extensive powers to identify the debtor’s assets through state registers, enquiries to financial institutions, etc.
There is no relevant case law or practice of Estonian courts regarding the piercing of the corporate veil.
Investor–State Arbitration in Estonia: Trends, Challenges and the Future
Estonia is entering a new phase of economic and geopolitical change. Once primarily known for its pioneering digital governance and tech start-up scene, the country is now emerging as a hub for defence and dual-use technologies. At the same time, its legal environment is being reshaped by evolving EU sanctions regimes, stricter foreign-investment controls and a more intricate relationship between EU law and international arbitration.
These shifts mean that investor–state dispute settlement (ISDS) – once a marginal feature of Estonia’s investment landscape – is gaining strategic relevance. As Estonia attracts increasing foreign investment in high-tech, defence and energy-related sectors, it will need to manage the corresponding legal risks, particularly those involving expropriation claims, ‘fair and equitable treatment’ (FET) standards, and enforcement of arbitral awards in a sanctions-laden environment.
This article explores the emerging trends, challenges and future directions of investor–state arbitration in Estonia, drawing on Sorainen’s experience in ISDS. It considers how developments in the defence sector, the handling of frozen assets under EU sanctions, and the expansion of the IT and technology economy are converging to create both opportunities and new points of tension for investors and the state alike.
Key developments in Estonia’s investment landscape
The defence and dual-use technology surge
In 2024, Estonia launched a EUR100 million Defence Fund, administered by SmartCap, to invest in early-stage and growth-stage defence and dual-use technology companies. The initiative reflects Estonia’s goal of developing sovereign capabilities in robotics, autonomous systems and cybersecurity – all areas with high dual-use potential.
A notable example is EDGE Group’s (United Arab Emirates) acquisition of a majority stake in Milrem Robotics, Estonia’s leading developer of unmanned ground vehicles and robotics systems. The deal – the largest foreign investment in Estonia’s defence sector to date – illustrates both the scale of opportunity and the legal complexity of foreign participation in sensitive industries. Defence and dual-use technologies are tightly regulated, touching on national security, export controls and confidentiality obligations – areas that could easily give rise to investor–state disputes if the rules change or are applied unevenly.
Frozen assets and the sanctions dimension
Estonia’s Riigikogu (parliament) recently adopted legislation permitting the use of Russian assets frozen under EU sanctions as an advance payment for reparations owed by Russia to Ukraine. While politically resonant, this measure introduces significant legal risks. Questions may arise over ownership, compensation, due process, and consistency with both constitutional property protections and international law.
The link between sanctions enforcement and investment protection is growing more complicated. Foreign investors whose assets are frozen or whose deals are affected by sanctions may try to seek compensation under bilateral investment treaties (BITs), claiming that Estonia’s measures amount to indirect expropriation or denial of justice. Enforcing arbitral awards against sanctioned entities is also difficult – frozen assets can’t easily be accessed, and EU courts may refuse recognition on public policy grounds.
The booming IT and technology sector
Estonia’s technology ecosystem continues to draw strong interest from global investors. Building on its e-Residency programme, advanced digital infrastructure and vibrant start-up culture, the country is increasingly focusing these strengths on cybersecurity and defence-tech innovation. Venture capital funds such as Plural, along with participants in the NATO Innovation Fund, are backing companies developing AI-powered situational awareness tools, autonomous systems and surveillance technologies.
This surge in high-tech investment strengthens Estonia’s position as a digital leader but also brings new legal risks. As emerging technologies overlap with sensitive regulatory areas – including data protection, privacy, export controls and national security – the potential for investor–state disputes is likely to grow.
Estonia’s treaty and arbitration framework
Estonia is a party to the ICSID Convention and maintains a number of BITs, primarily with non-EU states. However, following the Court of Justice of the European Union’s Achmea and Komstroy rulings, Estonia has terminated or suspended the operation of intra-EU BITs. The country remains bound by the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), although the future of the ECT itself is uncertain as the EU moves towards withdrawal and reform.
So far, Estonia has faced relatively few investor–state arbitration cases. The most notable recent example is ELA USA Ltd v Estonia, which involved claims of alleged discrimination in a major waterfront redevelopment at Tallinn’s Seaplane Harbour. In 2025, the tribunal dismissed the claim, finding that Estonia had acted lawfully. While this outcome reinforced Estonia’s reputation as a reliable, rule-of-law jurisdiction, it also underscores that even in environments with few disputes, significant claims can arise quickly when regulatory expectations are unclear or contested.
Emerging trends in investor–state arbitration
From Sorainen’s International Arbitration subgroup’s point of view, the following trends are likely to define Estonia’s ISDS landscape over the next decade.
Heightened arbitration risk in defence and dual-use sectors
As Estonia channels state and venture capital into defence and dual-use innovation, foreign investors will seek robust protection for their capital. Investors may see regulatory changes, such as reclassifying technologies, tightening export controls or introducing national security reviews, as unfair or expropriatory.
Dual-use technologies combine civilian and military applications, and rules often lag behind innovations in AI, cyber and robotics. Ambiguous licensing, unclear classifications or inconsistent enforcement can lead to disputes over what investors could reasonably expect.
Possible disputes may concern:
To reduce risk, Estonia can ensure regulations are clear, predictable and transparently applied, and engage stakeholders when changes are made. Tribunals generally look at whether investors could have anticipated the rules and whether measures are proportionate to public-interest goals.
Frozen assets and sanctions as catalysts for disputes
Estonia’s legislation allowing frozen Russian assets to be used for reparations creates new potential triggers for investment claims. Owners or beneficiaries – including foreign entities – could argue that their rights under investment treaties have been violated, citing expropriation or unfair treatment. Estonia, in turn, could rely on public-policy or security exceptions, pointing to sovereign necessity or compliance with EU sanctions.
Enforcing arbitral awards in this context is also challenging. Payments to or from sanctioned entities may be blocked by EU rules, creating tension between Estonia’s treaty obligations, such as those under the ICSID Convention, and its duties under EU law.
Intensified foreign investment screening
Estonia’s Foreign Investment Reliability Assessment Act (FIRAA) requires foreign acquisitions in national-security-sensitive sectors to undergo mandatory screening. As defence and dual-use industries grow, more deals will fall under this process. Decisions seen as arbitrary or lacking due process could trigger BIT claims for unfair treatment. To reduce risk, Estonia should keep screening transparent, consistent and open to review, clearly communicating criteria and reasoning for decisions.
The EU law dimension and the decline of intra-EU BITs
Following the Achmea and Komstroy rulings, intra-EU investor–state arbitration is largely off the table. Estonia’s terminated BITs with EU countries no longer offer ISDS protection, shifting focus to treaties with non-EU partners. Claims may still arise under multilateral treaties like the ECT or under contracts with arbitration clauses.
EU law also affects award enforcement. Estonian courts may refuse recognition if awards conflict with EU sanctions or public-policy rules, shaping both the likelihood and outcome of ISDS cases involving Estonia.
Rising costs, reputational stakes and institutional preparedness
High-value disputes in sensitive sectors can carry major financial and reputational risks. Estonia’s government will need specialised legal capacity to prevent and manage disputes, assess regulatory impacts and co-ordinate across ministries. Investors may respond by including detailed dispute resolution clauses, securing political risk insurance and selecting arbitration venues outside the EU.
Anticipated legal and institutional responses
To navigate these pressures, Estonia is likely to pursue a range of legal and institutional measures. In the defence and dual-use sector, the government may further clarify the scope of regulated activities, align definitions with EU and NATO standards, and issue detailed licensing guidelines. Clear, predictable rules help reduce the risk of ‘regulatory surprise’ claims.
Estonia should also consider strengthening transparency in foreign-investment screening. Formal appeals or review procedures under the FIRAA, combined with anonymised summaries of decisions, would improve due-process safeguards and reassure investors that restrictions are proportionate.
Treaty drafting and renegotiation will play an important role. Future BITs or investment chapters in trade agreements are likely to include explicit carve-outs for national security and public policy, while clarifying rules on indirect expropriation, necessity and emergency measures. At the EU level, Estonia may participate in reform efforts, including the development of a permanent Multilateral Investment Court, helping shape rules that are consistent with both constitutional and EU law obligations.
Sanctions and frozen-asset legislation will also need clear procedures. Providing notice, the right to be heard, transparent valuation and proportionality analysis can help protect against claims of arbitrary expropriation, even where compensation is limited.
As disputes increasingly reach Estonian courts, judicial expertise in international arbitration will be critical. Continuous training, reasoned judgments and consistent application of public-policy exceptions will strengthen Estonia’s reputation as an arbitration-friendly jurisdiction.
Investors are expected to respond proactively, conducting political risk assessments, negotiating arbitration clauses with neutral seats, choosing governing law that aligns with treaty protections, and using political-risk insurance from entities such as MIGA or national export credit agencies. These contractual and institutional strategies will shape the practical contours of future disputes.
Implications for stakeholders
For investors
Investors entering Estonia’s defence, cybersecurity and technology markets should carefully consider:
Regulatory changes in Estonia can have direct treaty-law consequences, so investors need to plan for a more legally complex environment.
For the Estonian state
For Estonia, maintaining an attractive investment environment while protecting national security and complying with EU obligations requires:
These measures help reduce both the financial and reputational risks of future disputes.
For arbitration outcomes and jurisprudence
Tribunals examining disputes involving Estonia are likely to focus on:
The outcomes of these cases will not only shape Estonia’s reputation but may also influence broader European debates on balancing investment protection with national security and sanctions policies.
The evolution of Estonia’s ISDS profile
Looking ahead, Estonia’s investor–state arbitration profile is likely to evolve in several ways:
In this sense, Estonia may follow the path of other advanced small economies that have turned limited ISDS experience into a strength by building specialised state-defence capabilities and clear policy frameworks.
Conclusion
Estonia sits at the crossroads of technological innovation, geopolitical tension and evolving investment law. Its goal to become a regional hub for defence and dual-use technology will draw significant foreign investment, but it also increases the risk of arbitration. At the same time, Estonia’s approach to frozen assets and alignment with EU sanctions raises new questions about property rights and international obligations.
Investor–state arbitration is becoming a central part of Estonia’s investment landscape. Investors will need to anticipate regulatory and political changes, structure their investments carefully, and choose dispute resolution mechanisms that work under both EU and international law. Estonia, meanwhile, must balance national security measures, sanctions enforcement and investment promotion within a clear and coherent legal framework.
If managed strategically, Estonia’s evolving engagement with ISDS can enhance rather than undermine its investment climate. Transparent laws, fair procedures and well-drafted treaties can provide the certainty investors seek while preserving the sovereign space Estonia requires to safeguard security and uphold international norms. In this balance lies the future of investor–state arbitration in Estonia – not as an unavoidable conflict, but as a tool to maintain trust, predictability and the rule of law in a complex global environment.