The Polish Real Estate Market in 2026: An Overview

Global and domestic trends shaping Poland’s real estate market

As we move further into 2026, the global real estate industry continues to adapt to a world characterised by heightened uncertainty, shifting economic conditions, and rapid technological change.

The conflict in Iran, which has quickly expanded to the entire Middle East, has shaken investor confidence not only in the Middle East itself but also globally. Even if not directly tied to real estate fundamentals in Europe, it affects macro conditions that do influence investment decisions: disruptions have pushed up oil prices and revived concerns about inflation. In the long run, those factors will likely lead to central banks delaying further cuts in or even increasing interest rates, in consequence raising the cost of capital for real estate deals. Decreased oil and gas supply due to ongoing conflicts and sanctions imposed on Russia has also led to a greater focus on increasing the supply of renewable energy and addressing related challenges, including planning restrictions (particularly those affecting wind farms), grid capacity constraints and the storage of surplus of energy generated from renewable sources, especially photovoltaic installations.

The factors outlined above have increased market volatility and, to some extent, pushed investors towards safer or more liquid assets. Considering the illiquidity of real estate assets, overall risk appetite may be reduced in 2026, indirectly affecting investor sentiment towards real estate investment in Poland. Geopolitical uncertainty has led to a sharp increase in investor caution: institutional investors are tending towards more liquid assets or waiting on the sidelines. This has resulted in longer fundraising cycles and lower overall transaction volumes compared to peak years. Another outcome of the macro and geopolitical situation is that capital has become increasingly selective, with smaller and more opportunistic vehicles facing greater difficulty in securing commitments.

That said, the outlook for Poland’s real estate market remains positive. The fact that Poland has joined the G20 and continues on a healthy growth path sends an encouraging signal of Poland as a “safe haven” – a stable economy, growing faster than Western Europe, a country with a well-educated and versatile workforce, and lower manufacturing and operating costs – which provides greater opportunities for higher returns on investment. As a result, we are seeing increased interest from opportunistic and value-add investors, with traditional investors also hinting at investing again in core assets in Poland.

The growing share of regional investors from CEE has been one of the most important structural shifts in the Polish real estate market in the last few years and intra-CEE capital flows have recently scaled up significantly. In 2025, CEE real estate investment reached EUR11.6 billion across the region’s six main markets. Czech investors alone deployed EUR600 million into Poland in 2025. By 2025, Poland’s real estate market was no longer primarily dependent on Western capital, instead, it is becoming a regionally driven ecosystem led by regional investors.

Poland’s real estate market is also witnessing a clear emergence of long-absent domestic private capital, with an increasing number of wealthy Polish individuals directly entering the commercial property segment. In H1 2025, Polish investors accounted for over 16% of total investment volume. Moreover, CEE and domestic investors dominate mid-market transactions, which now represent a large share of deal flow – the average deal size in 2025 fell to EUR26 million. However, Polish investors are not limiting their investments to small and mid-market transactions – in 2026 they have also started taking an interest in core assets, mainly office buildings and logistics assets of much higher value. After a brief dip in 2022, the number of high net worth individuals in Poland has been steadily increasing, and this creates a large domestic capital pool looking for allocation both directly and through institutional funds.

Logistics, data centres and energy transition

The supply of logistics real estate in Poland has stabilised. Interest in logistics assets is still strong but waning occupier demand for leasing logistics assets has resulted in investors being slightly more selective. In 2026, we expect investors to concentrate on location as they see it as key to ensuring a sustainable income, with a strong additional focus on the quality of assets, energy sustainability (in order to make such assets attractive to more discerning occupiers) and pursuing opportunities to reposition industrial assets for other higher-value uses, such as conversion to data centres.

Globally, data centres top the list of the most sought-after asset class. However, in Poland, power availability, location, insufficient grid capacity and regulatory compliance remain key considerations. We see increased investor interest in developing data centres in Poland, but this interest is limited to Warsaw and potentially Tricity. It seems that distance from AI hubs located in the USA and Western Europe may also shape the outlook for this particular asset class in Poland, making it less attractive than its Western counterparts.

Assets supporting the energy transition are attracting increasing allocations from major investors. Even though the narrative of a global retreat from ESG gained momentum last year, from Poland’s perspective, the notion of stepping back from ESG is overstated. ESG in Poland is evolving into a more structured discipline: assets in sustainable funds in Poland rose by 59% in 2025, showing strong investor interest in ESG-aligned products. Furthermore, the uncertain supply of traditional energy sources has made renewable energy assets a necessity.

Living: responding to demographic changes

Residential is set to remain a strong sector in Poland, and the ageing population and an insufficient supply of affordable housing will certainly reshape the entire living sector.

The residential market remains largely fragmented and dominated by private investors: institutional private rental sector (PRS) participation is between 1% and 2% of overall rental housing. This imbalance creates a paradox: on one hand, constrained institutional participation in housing may perpetuate supply shortages and sustain upward pressure on rents; on the other, it preserves a space where individual investors can still obtain relatively higher yields. Private investors’ appetite for residential rentals was expected to be channelled through REIT-like vehicles, which have long been anticipated in Poland. However, recent announcements by the Polish government indicate that residential properties will not be included. This is due to government concerns that REIT-like vehicles would impact residential property prices, which are already high.

Notwithstanding the above, we anticipate that PRS assets will continue to grow and more co-living and academic facilities will be developed – it is expected that 6200 new units will be delivered in 2026. The high demand for institutional rentals is driven by limited affordability of residential mortgages and a migration influx (including migration from Ukraine following the Russian invasion). Taking into account both ongoing developments and planned investments, the PRS offering in Poland is projected to exceed 36,000 units within the next two years. Among the major PRS operators on the Polish market, the average vacancy rate at the end of 2024 stood at approximately 2%. The largest transaction to date on the Polish PRS market is expected to close in 2026, which will further demonstrate the liquidity of this sector.

Meanwhile, we expect to see rising demand for luxury living, driven by affluent clients seeking premium properties in prime locations (in Warsaw, luxury property prices can reach up to PLN100,000 per sq m), development of the first ever branded residence in Poland and increasing amenity sophistication.

Moreover, the hospitality sector is set for a revival (in 2025, Poland came second in Europe in terms of growth in overnight stays), alongside a further blurring of the line between residential real estate and hotels.

Insights into the retail and office real estate market

In the retail sector, core transactions involving large shopping centres, including portfolio acquisitions, are expected to continue. The liquidity of stand-alone assets will also increase, with retail parks already dominating new supply: in 2025, the share of retail parks in the total transaction volume on the retail market reached almost 60% and new supply exceeded 4 million sq m).

The Polish office market is set for a strong resurgence driven by high tenant demand, limited new supply (which in 2025 stood at 100,000 sq m – the second lowest rate in the last ten years) and growing investor confidence, particularly in Warsaw and major regional cities.

In the past few years, Poland has become a major European hub for shared services and business service centres, which has driven demand for office space. There is no real indication of a broad trend of offshoring such functions from Poland to Asia. Instead, Poland is benefiting from nearshoring within Europe from West to East, and some Asian supply chain dependencies are being relocated closer to the EU market.

While some regional cities in Poland have experienced declining demand from shared service occupiers (mainly related to IT services) due to a shift towards working from home, landlords have seen increased interest from traditional occupiers for modern office space located in central districts. Office space is now seen not only as a place to work but also to socialise, innovate and exchange ideas, and landlords have recalibrated their offers to suit those needs.

Poland – a safe haven in Europe

While international geopolitical instability remains the overarching global concern, in 2026 Poland is set to maintain its position as one of Europe’s fastest-growing economies. The real estate market is gradually finding equilibrium, supported by Poland’s stable economic backdrop, low inflation and improving financing conditions – all creating a favourable environment for investment.

At the same time, there is visible investor interest in non-traditional property types. Below we offer insight into segments that are not typically covered in market reports but should be seen as trends to watch out for from the perspective of investors seeking to capitalise on emerging sectors.

Defence in Real Estate

Geopolitical factors and market interest

The outbreak of war in Ukraine as well as rising geopolitical tensions worldwide have brought real estate investments in the defence sector into the spotlight, marking the emergence of a notable trend in Poland’s real estate market. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the shifting political focus of the United States and potential delays in traditional armament deliveries have made investment in national defence capabilities a fundamental issue for the Polish government.

One facet of this is dual-use real estate – properties designed or adapted to serve both civilian and strategic or security-related functions. This includes public and parking facilities, and sports infrastructure, which can be repurposed for emergency response operations, civil defence, data storage, logistics hubs, or even temporary housing in crisis situations.

A second aspect is the development of industrial, light industrial, logistics and storage facilities for defence purposes and how the government and private sector may collaborate in building additional capabilities in this arena.

Although the need to rapidly enhance Poland’s defence capabilities is clear to lawmakers, politicians and investors alike, the market has not yet seen actual implementation of such projects on a wider scale. Notwithstanding the somewhat inadequate regulatory framework, defence-related investments, including real estate investments, are already taking place and will significantly increase in the coming years as the government does not have the capacity, technology or competencies to build the required defence infrastructure and industries itself. We expect the development of defence infrastructure will involve a mix of public and private ventures, as is the case today, albeit on a much smaller scale.

Challenges for defence-related real estate. What changes are needed within the legal and regulatory framework?

First, the regulatory framework is yet to catch up with this hybrid asset class. Zoning laws, building codes, and fire and safety standards need updating to support the efficient development of multi-functional facilities without bureaucratic delays. Examples of the required amendments to the existing legislation include:

• introducing a clear definition of dual-use infrastructure;
• standardising the legal definitions and technical requirements for the construction of such projects;
• securing income for private investors when repurposing assets for defence objectives;
• expediting procurement processes, which in Poland take months or even years to conclude; and
• setting out clear rules for financing defence-related projects to ensure that investors are able to secure financing for developing and leveraging their investments (including securing income for dual-use assets).

One of the key hurdles, particularly for private investors, is securing the financing necessary to develop defence-related projects. Traditional lenders appear hesitant to underwrite properties with less conventional usage scenarios, particularly when part of the asset’s value lies in its strategic or security purpose rather than its purely commercial function, or where the certainty of income may be at risk. This could be addressed by easing lenders’ financing requirements or introducing new financing models, such as public-private partnerships, long-term government contracts or government-backed guarantees.

Until these measures are successfully implemented, dual-use project funding will most likely remain government-led. One key example is the creation of the Security and Defence Fund, with a budget of PLN22 billion, financed from the National Recovery and Resilience Plan with the aim of investing funds into defence buildings and safety infrastructure. Another example is the European Funds for a Modern Economy programme, managed by the Ministry of Development Funds and Regional Policy, which was revised in February 2026 to also cover projects in defence technologies and support dual-use projects. The rollout of this programme is expected in H2 2026. These programmes will be supplemented by a range of smaller scale projects managed by other governmental bodies and institutions, such as the Polish Development Fund (PFR) and the National Development Bank (BGK).

The role of government and EU support. Opportunities for key market players

A further opportunity for real estate investors is linked to Poland’s increasing defence budget and robust funding for Polish defence spending, in particular under the EU SAFE loans programme. According to plans unveiled by government officials, Poland plans to obtain over EUR43.7 billion from the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument, which will be spent between 2026 and 2030 across a variety of systems and defence infrastructure, including artillery systems, anti-aircraft and anti-missile defence, ground combat and support systems, ammunition, missiles and drones. A significant part of the above investment will be outsourced to private industry and requires development or redevelopment of modern manufacturing and assembling facilities, technology and R&D laboratories, and storage and logistics infrastructure.

The government’s goal is to ensure that the majority of the funds will be invested directly in Poland, in particular through the development and expansion of local factory production lines and manufacturing facilities. The Armament Agency, a unit operating under Poland’s Ministry of National Defence, estimates that 89% of funds will go to Polish industry, with an estimated 12,000 Polish companies benefitting from the programme.

Manufacturing and logistics market players will certainly be key beneficiaries of this ambitious spending programme, in particular those able to deliver built-to-suit projects appropriate for the defence agencies and the private defence industry. However, developers will not be the only real estate industry players to benefit from the expanded Polish defence programmes. Real estate investors, debt funds and service providers will also be able to participate in this new trend by providing financing for the development of defence infrastructure (in particular manufacturing, assembling, storage and logistics facilities through established real estate schemes such as forward funding, forward purchasing, and sale and lease back) as well as providing property management, project management, monitoring, sustainability and technological competencies.

Healthcare Real Estate

Poland is entering a pivotal phase in the development of its healthcare and senior living real estate market. A combination of rising healthcare expenditure, an aging population and significant capacity gaps is reshaping both investor interest and public policy priorities. At the same time, international trends – particularly those already seen in the United States and mature Western European markets – offer valuable insights into how the sector is likely to evolve domestically.

Healthcare spending and demographic pressures

As reported by Statistics Poland (GUS), healthcare expenditure in Poland reached PLN293.6 billion in 2024, representing 8.1% of GDP. These record levels reflect both rising public spending and strong private demand, which continues to grow in response to long waiting lists and limited hospital capacity.

Poland is also aging at one of the fastest rates in Europe. Currently, one in five Poles is aged 65 or over, and this share is expected to reach nearly 30% within 20 years. By comparison, seniors already accounted for 22% of the EU population in 2025 (21.6% in 2024).

These demographic shifts are creating long-term demand for new diagnostic centres, rehabilitation units, outpatient clinics, and age-appropriate housing, including assisted living facilities.

Poland’s healthcare and senior living market: early stage but high growth

Despite strong demand fundamentals, Poland’s senior living and healthcare real estate markets remain structurally undersupplied.

According to publicly available data, the availability of private long-term care beds for the 80+ population remains below 2%, well below coverage levels in Western Europe. Although operators in Poland are beginning to develop commercial senior living formats (independent living, assisted living, nursing homes, etc), overall capacity remains limited.

Private capital is increasingly flowing into Poland’s healthcare sector, with the number of acquisitions of medical platforms by private equity funds tripling over the past decade. This reflects growing investor confidence in outpatient care, diagnostics, and long-term services due to increased government spending, high margins, long-term contracts securing sustainable income, and the generally higher incomes of patients who expect faster, better and more customer-friendly medical services.

Investment trends and future outlook

Poland and the CEE region appear poised for accelerated transformation, driven by a shift towards outpatient care that mirrors Western Europe’s decentralisation of healthcare delivery. Medical platforms and service providers that continue to grow their customer base are driving demand for real estate investment, including both new-build facilities and the conversion of obsolete offices, hotels and other assets. Such investments range from straightforward development and letting of medical outpatient building facilities to outpatient care providers to more complex partnerships with medical service platforms in assisted living assets where the viability and sustainability of the operator’s business as well as the stability of their operating licences are key factors.

Poland stands at a strategic turning point. With healthcare spending rising, the elderly population expanding, and supply lagging far behind demand, the country offers exceptional long-term potential for healthcare and senior living investment. Supported by global benchmarks and growing institutional interest, early movers in Poland are well positioned to shape a new, resilient real estate asset class for the coming decades.

Renewable Sources and Energy Storage

Energy transition is increasingly being viewed not only as an element of climate policy, but also as a key factor in energy security. The development of renewable energy sources reduces dependence on fossil fuel imports and strengthens the system’s resilience to geopolitical shocks.

Wind farms and PV installations – challenges

At the end of 2025, renewable energy sources accounted for more than 50% of installed capacity in Poland, driven primarily by rapid growth in photovoltaics and wind power, particularly small-scale PV installations. Despite high capacity, renewables generated “just” over 30% of electricity in 2025 due to intermittency. The instability of production that is dependent on weather conditions, in particular for wind farms, was demonstrated in winter 2025/2026 in which very cold weather translated into weaker winds and a decrease in energy production of almost 30%.

Additional hurdles for renewable energy include:

• inadequate grid infrastructure, leading to high production from photovoltaics and wind farms being curtailed due to limited energy storage capacity);
• lengthy administrative procedures;
• limited land availability (especially due to military zones);
• limited availability of financing;
• high investment costs (especially true for offshore wind farms); and,
• with respect to wind farms, restrictive regulations specifying the minimum distance of turbines from residential buildings (the so-called 700m Act) that limit the availability of land.

Despite all these difficulties, investor interest in renewables remains strong although, as with other asset classes, investors are looking for ways to mitigate structural risks. One way to address grid constraints is the use of battery energy storage systems (BESS).

Energy storage – a new asset class

The growing need to stabilise Poland’s energy grid has made energy storage a key element of the energy resource management strategy. Technology is opening new opportunities for the Polish energy sector, enabling more efficient use of renewable energy and strengthening the country’s energy independence.

Energy storage systems are a key component in integrating renewable energy sources into the energy grid. Energy storage systems enable the accumulation of surplus energy generated during periods of intense sunlight or strong winds. When production from these sources decreases, the stored energy can be used to meet current demand.

Investors are beginning to treat energy storage systems not only as support for renewable energy installations but also as standalone assets with revenue-generating potential. The main challenges facing energy storage systems are the availability of financing and connection to the grid. Key factors for lenders include revenue stability, investment costs, and the effectiveness of the technology applied over the long financing period.